Forest Fires in Italy : An Econometric Analysis of Major Driving Factors

Despite the relevant fire risk to which Italy is subject from the north to the south, very few analyses focus on this topic. This article investigates the causes of forest fires frequency and intensity in Italy during the first decade of the twenty-first century. The dynamical aspects of fire danger are explored through the use of panel data techniques, which fully capture the impacts on forest fires regarding changes in both socioeconomic and climatic conditions. Italy is treated as a unique region in an initial model specification, and is then split into 3 geographical areas (north, center, and south) to capture locally specific aspects. Two different dependent variables are alternatively employed and a number of ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate the robustness of our estimates. The results highlight the importance of considering the fire situation separately for the northern, central, and southern parts of Italy. While the presence of railway networks positively affects fire risk, the impact of livestock depends on its specific composition. Favorable effects in fire reduction are represented by the increase in education levels (north and center) and touristic flows (north and south), and by the containment of illegal activities (south). Weather patterns appear to be important determinants throughout the Italian peninsula