FORMAÇÃO DE PREÇOS NO SETOR SUCROALCOOLEIRO DA REGIÃO CENTRO-SUL DO BRASIL: RELAÇÃO COM O MERCADO DE COMBUSTÍVEL FÓSSIL

The objective of this study is the construction and estimation of an analytical model which is able to explain the behavior of prices of products from the sugar and alcohol industries, taking into account the recent interrelationship observed between these sectors and the fossil fuel products when the hydrated alcohol has been considered a substitute for the C-gasoline. The methodology used is the Vector Auto-Regression Analysis and for the definition of the statistical model it is taken into account the integration and co-integration properties of the used time series. The results obtained with the Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and of co-integration of Johansem pointed to the need of the construction of a Vector Auto-Regression model with error correction - VEC. The results show that variations in the C-gasoline price for the retail segment present an immediate and high effect on the price of the hydrated alcohol for the retail segment, indicating a high degree of substitutability of the first product by the second one. The results also indicate that the variations in the price of the anhydrous alcohol for the producer present significant impacts in the price of the hydrated alcohol for the producer and retail segment, with a time lag of one month in the second case. The price variations of sugar in the domestic market are passed through the other products of the sector. However the elasticities are low. Also, it was not observed a significant effect of variations in the price of alcohol on the sugar price for the producer segment.