Futures of the Technological Knowledge Generation by Multinational Enterprises - A Scenario Approach

The objective of this paper is to analyse trends and possible future changes in the way of knowledge production by multinational enterprises (MNE) and the relative role of MNE in the European Research Area. Various scenarios of the future of knowledge production by multinationals will be developed. The time horizon of the scenario will be to 2020. R&D is considered as one core element hereby. Four consistent scenarios are built. In scenario "The Long Boom", the investment in technological knowledge is dramatic and highly globally-distributed. In scenario "Ups and Downs", the overall investment in innovation stagnates and correlates with the economic up-and-down-swings. The "Handpicked Innovation" scenario includes, that MNE generate innovation only by chance and focus on internal knowledge generation. In the "Zero Grow" scenario, MNE restrain competition and technological knowledge becomes less and less important to differentiate in competition