Fuzzy Logic-Based Modeling Method for Regional Multi-Ship Collision Risk Assessment Considering Impact of Ship Crossing Angle and Navigational Environment

The modeling and perception of regional multi-ship collision risk in complex waters play an important role in improving water intelligent traffic monitoring and management. In order to realize the perception of regional ship collision risk, this paper proposes a fuzzy logic-based modelling method for regional multi-ship collision risk considering impact of ship crossing angle and navigational environment. The method incorporates the impact factors of DCPA, TCPA, ship crossing angle and navigation environment in multi-ship encounter situation by using fuzzy logic theory. We use Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to obtain the risk weights of different ships versus single ships, and then obtain the risk of single ship collisions. In order to verify the validity of the model, data from the Taiwan Strait is used for verification, and the results show that this method can realize the early warning of regional multi-ship collision risk. This model can provide an important basis for maritime collision risk monitoring and ship navigation risk assessment for maritime administration departments and shore-based center of unmanned ships