Geopolitical risk perceptions
Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.
Year of publication: |
2024
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Authors: | Bondarenko, Yevheniia ; Lewis, Vivien ; Rottner, Matthias ; Schüler, Yves |
Publisher: |
Frankfurt a. M. : Deutsche Bundesbank |
Subject: | geopolitical risk | risk perceptions | Russia | sanctions | shock transmission |
Saved in:
freely available
Series: | Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; 37/2024 |
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Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Type of publication (narrower categories): | Working Paper |
Language: | English |
ISBN: | 978-3-98848-012-5 |
Other identifiers: | 1902248120 [GVK] RePEc:zbw:bubdps:302558 [RePEc] |
Classification: | E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; e71 ; f44 ; F51 - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions ; g41 |
Source: |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015057783