Global liquidity and exchange rates

We present evidence that fluctuations in the aggregate balance sheets of financial intermediaries forecast exchange rate returns - at weekly, monthly, and quarterly frequencies, both in and out of sample, and for a large set of countries. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional, arbitrage-free asset pricing approach and show that balance sheets forecast exchange rates because of the latter's association with fluctuations in risk premia. We provide a rationale for an intertemporal equilibrium pricing theory in which intermediaries are subject to balance sheet constraints.