Globalizacija financijskih trzista i liberalizacija bilance kapitalnih transakcija

On the occasion of capital account liberalization in developing countries it has been ascertained the appearance of short-term and long-term effects on prices and production in the country. The short-term effects are shown in faster growth of local goods prices in relation to foreign-trade goods, what reflects to decrease or slower growth of foreign trade goods production, and faster growth of local goods production. Salaries increase faster in relation to prices of export and import goods, and slower in relation to prices of local goods. The rate of capital return drops in import and export sectors and rises in local sector. Long-term effects of capital account liberalization are: relative increase of production of local goods with capital and labour flow into this sector and relative production decline for exports and import- competitive production with capital and labour flow from these sectors. + The small open economies practice the control of short-term capital flow in order to alleviate speculative shocks on domestic liquidity and foreign exchange reserves level. Construction and liberalization of domestic financial market ensure the instruments for alleviation of consequences of the monetary autonomy's loss because of opening the capital account balance. The open capital account demands the instruments for prevention of inflation and exchange rate appreciation. It is necessary to keep in mind here that external financial liberalization, as distinguished from foreign trade liberalization, weakens the connection between inflation and exchange rate, in such a way that international differences in inflation rate are stronger reflected to differences in nominal interest rate than in nominal rate change. Croatia like the majority of developing countries has not got developed futures market and there is not a possibility of covering the rate risk. In the conditions of liberalized international capital flow the short-term factors of forming exchange rate could be expressed by uncovered interest parity, and the condition of uncovered interest parity is that a difference of domestic and foreign interest rate is equal to expected local currency depreciation rate. Accordingly, the restrictive monetary policy brings to increase of interest differential above its balanced long-term level, while capital imports brings to appreciation above its real balanced level. + The component of development strategy is the strategy of foreign trade system liberalization and international capital flow. In the conditions of appreciated kuna and parallel liberalization of foreign trade, appears restructuring of economy in direction of local sectors' strengthening and decline of production for exports and import competitive production for domestic market. The foreign capital inflow into local sectors intensifies structural developmental problems of a country. Too early liberalization of foreign trade system and real kuna appreciation cause structural consequences which dispute the objectives and policy of full employment, that is the strategy of overcoming underemployment. The result is the phase strategy of development on the level of integrity, as well as on the level of sectors, branches and groups of economy. ... + Liberalization of capital transactions in Croatia takes place in the conditions of existence of currency substitution ("dollarization") whose causes may be manifold. To return and increase the confidence in own currency it is necessary to act in direction of removing the causes of dollarization. The necessity of removing dollarization is a consequence of its possible unfavourable impact on macroeconomic stability, investments, rate and competitivenes of economy. Although dollarization is the result of rational reaction of residents because of protection of uncertainty and value prevention of its property, it causes the problems in leading macroeconomic policy and affects. ... (SOI : EP: S. 124-126)