Greenhouse gas emissions charges and credits agricultural land: what can a model tell us?

Using the simulation model Land Use in Rural New Zealand version 1 -climate (LURNZv1-climate), we simulate the effects of an agricultural land-use emissions charge and a reward for native forest and scrub regeneration. Our results are preliminary and at this stage should be considered illustrative. We find that, on its own, an agricultural emissions charge based on solely on land use would be disruptive and may not be very effective in reducing emissions. In addition, we find that including an additional policy that rewards regenerating forest and scrub without a similar reward for plantation forestry might negatively impact on plantation forestry, increasing emissions growth in the short-run. We are currently developing a second version of LURNZ-climate, which will be more robust and thus lend more weight to our future results.