Growth Dynamics Exposed to Conflict Between Easy Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Restriction. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2017

After a cyclical slowdown in 2012-13, GDP growth in the industrialised economies should pick up to reach an average annual rate of 2.0 percent over the period from 2012 to 2017. In the USA, the growth momentum will be stronger (2.4 percent p.a.) than in the EU (1.4 percent) or Japan (1.5 percent). Growth in the euro area will only attain 1.1 percent per year, as many countries will only gradually rid themselves from the government debt crisis. In the new EU member countries, output growth will be nearly three times as high (3.2 percent per year). China and India will continue to enjoy the fastest pace of growth, at 7.9 percent and 7.7 percent p.a., respectively). In the other developing or emerging economies, GDP is expected to expand by around 4½ percent per year until 2015.