How do central bank projections and forward guidance influence private-sector forecasts?

We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Further, neither central banks' provision of policy rate path projections nor their choice of policy rate assumption used in their macroeconomic projections appear to matter much for private-sector forecast disagreement.

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Year of publication:	2018
Authors:	Jain, Monica ; Sutherland, Christopher S.
Publisher:	Ottawa : Bank of Canada
Subject:	Transmission of monetary policy \| Central bank research \| Inflation targets \| Monetary policy \| Monetary policy communications

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Series:	Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper ; 2018-2
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.34989/swp-2018-2 [DOI] 1010991663 [GVK] hdl:10419/197826 [Handle] RePEc:bca:bocawp:18-2 [RePEc]
Classification:	D83 - Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects) ; E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014428