How Does the FTA Affect the Duration of Agricultural Exports? Evidence from China

Using discrete-time survival analysis method, this study examined the effect and mechanism of free trade agreements (FTAs) on the duration of agricultural exports. We found that a country’s agricultural exports to FTA members have a lower risk of interruption than non-members. Specifically, the duration of already active trade relationships becomes longer, while that of new relationships is shorter, due to uncertain factors. The survival probability of agricultural export relationships increases with the improvement of FTA clauses depth. In addition, there are effects of product heterogeneity and clause heterogeneity on the impact of FTAs on the duration of agricultural exports. Moreover, further analysis found that exports of agricultural products to FTA members with higher centrality in the FTA network have a longer duration. FTAs extend the duration of agricultural exports through increasing the total factor productivity of agricultural products