How does the yield variability in rainfed crops respond to climate variables? Evidence from pulses yields in Telangana, India

Purpose: This paper aims to evaluate the effects of climate variables on the mean yield and yield variability of major pulse crops in the Telangana state of India. Design/methodology/approach: Authors have estimated the Just and Pope (1978, 1979) production function using panel data at the district level of four major pulses in nine former districts of Telangana for 36 years during 1980–2015. A three-stage feasible generalized least squares estimation procedure has been followed. The mean yield and yield variance functions have been estimated individually for each of these study crops, namely, Bengal gram, green gram, red gram and horse gram. Findings: Results have shown that changes in climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature have significant influences on the mean yield levels and yield variance of pulses. The maximum temperature is observed to have a significant adverse impact on the mean yield of a majority of pulses, and it is also a risk-enhancing factor for a majority of pulses except horse gram. However, the minimum temperature is positively related to the mean yields of the study crops except for Bengal gram, and it is having a risk-reducing impact for a majority of study crops. Rainfall is observed to have a negative impact on the mean yields of all pulses, but it is a risk-enhancing factor for only one crop, i.e. Bengal gram. Thus, rising temperatures and excess rainfall are not favorable to the productivity of pulses in study districts. Research limitations/implications: The present study is based on the secondary data at the district level and is considering only one state. Season-wise primary data, including farm-specific characteristics, could have been better. The projected climate change and its impact on the mean yields and yield variance of pulses need to be considered in a future study. Originality/value: According to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically evaluate the impact of climatic variables on the mean yields and yield variability of major pulses in Telangana using a panel data for major pulses and nine districts of 36 years time-series during 1980–2015. The study has given useful policy recommendations.