How Important is Neighbourhood Labour Structure in the Spread of COVID-19? Within-City Evidence from England

In this paper we estimate the importance of local labour structure in the spread of COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic. We build a unique data set across 6,700 neighbourhoods in England that allows us to distinguish between people living (residents) and people working (workers) in a neighbourhood, and to differentiate between jobs that can be done from home (homeworkers), jobs that likely continued on-site (keyworkers), and non-essential on-site jobs. We use these data to study the relationship between the within-city variation in neighbourhood population/employment structures and the within-city variation in COVID-19 spread. Neighbourhood labour structure is important, explaining approximately 9.5% of the within-city variation over-and-above population density and other confounders. Holding residential population constant, 50 more residents working from home decreases neighbourhood cases by almost one-third relative to the mean; having 50 more residents in keywork jobs increases neighbourhood cases by almost two-thirds. We find the magnitude of these results varies by neighbourhood deprivation levels. In high-deprivation neighbourhoods, the positive effect of keyworkers on cases is larger, while the protective effect of homeworkers is lower than in more affluent areas. We speculate on how the various types of occupations within these job categories drive the differences across neighbourhoods. These findings point to important asymmetries in the social justice of the policy response to COVID-19, providing useful insights for the design of future economic policies and public health strategies during the endemic phase of the disease