How Many Children? : Fixing Total Annual Births as a Population Control Policy

Note: Below is a description of the paper and not the actual abstract. Commonly proposed family planning targets in terms of number of children per family will not lead to a smaller stationary population. Two children or one child per family will lead to a shrinking population. 2.17 children per family will lead to a larger stationary population, but it is administratively difficult to implement. A more direct way to achieve a smaller stationary population is to fix the annual births to a level equal to the annual deaths generated by the projected smaller stationary population. The fixed annual birth quotas can be initially allocated to families with deaths according to a variable births/deaths conversion ratio. These tradable birth quotas with fixed expiration dates will permit families to choose different numbers of children according to their desire and ability. Tradable fixed annual birth quotas can thus combine the macro-stability of a smaller stationary population with the micro-flexibility of optimum allocation of birth quotas