How to Suppress a Lead: Comment.
According to the findings of Scholer (1994)' the "Business Climate" developed by the ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich, cannot be used as a leading indicator for business cycle forecast. This paper shows that this result is due to Scholer's choice of statistical methods applied: apart from generating stationary time series, Scholer's filter systematically suppresses the business cycle components and amplifies the irregular components. It impairs the basis for the causality test.
Year of publication: |
1995
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Authors: | Goldrian, Georg |
Published in: |
Empirical Economics. - Department of Economics and Finance Research and Teaching. - Vol. 20.1995, 1, p. 177-81
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Publisher: |
Department of Economics and Finance Research and Teaching |
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