How Will the Euro behave?

This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the effect on exchange rates of integrating monetary policy in Europe. It shows that the likely effect will be to generate a tighter European monetary policy (notwithstanding credibility aspects which are not discussed). The argument is that trade disequilibria will be less of a threat to European monetary policy than it is at the moment. Under certain circumstances, which are explored in the text, this could lead to a more volatile euro than we have currently (as a basket of currencies).