Hydro-climatic and Economic Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Risk Based Irrigation Management
This work is focused in the Murrumbidgee catchment to help understand the value of theseasonal forecasts to rice based cropping systems. The key activities of this project include:• An overview of water allocation in the Murrumbidgee Valley• Evaluation of commonly used seasonal forecasting methods used to predict rainfall• Development of a novel water allocation model on the basis of seasonal forecasts andhistoric allocation data• Economic analysis of the benefits from better irrigation forecasts in irrigatedcatchmentsThe key findings include:• The current system of announcing allocations does not take into account seasonalclimate forecasts of rainfall and flows in the catchment. End of the season allocationsare made too late and pose a serious financial risk to farmers due to inadequateinformation being available at the start of the summer cropping period• The SST correlations with inflows to dams has provided promising results, which canbe used to forecast flows to dams with lead times of around 1 year• Artificial Neural network (ANN) approaches which can learn from historic modelsimulations and SST predictions can be a way forward to link climate forecasts withrisk management. Results of the ANN model show good correlations with the historicwater allocation trends over any given season. This tool can be used to make informedcropping risk decisions• Irrigators utilising allocation forecast information can minimise the opportunity costof forgone agricultural production. Undertaking decision analysis, it was estimatedthat the net benefit of allocation forecasts to the irrigators of the CIA is between$50,000 and $660,000 per year (equivalent to $0.68/ha and $8.56/ha). This wasassuming that the CIA irrigators are collectively risk averse as their risk preference isunknownAs part of this project a stakeholder workshop on climate variability, climate change andadaptation in the Murrumbidgee Basin was organised, to examine research ideas on climateresearch for efficient irrigation management. Participants included a number of interestedparticipants from irrigation companies, NSW Agriculture, Department of InfrastructurePlanning and Natural Resources (DIPNR), Murray Darling Basin Commission (MDBC) andthe local community. There is a tremendous interest in climate and water issues due to therecent drought. The farming community needs tools which can link climate forecasts withsmarter agricultural water management using a risk based approach. The key barrier to theadoption of existing climate forecast tools is their lack of proven utility and the risk adverseattitude of water allocation agencies.
Year of publication: |
2005-10-19
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Authors: | Khan, Shahbaz ; Robinson, David ; Beddek, Redha ; Wang, Butian ; Dassanayake, Dharma ; Rana, Tariq |
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