Identity, Institutions, and Uprisings

Three related models of contentious politics in authoritarian states are presented, using the identity-driven rational choice framework of Akerlof & Kranton (2000) as a starting point. The first model describes the familiar cascade dynamic of uprisings, but driven by identity polarization rather than preference falsification. The second shows how screening enables some institutions act as havens for dissent, even under strong and stable authoritarian regimes. The third model links rational choice models to the “WUNC displays” of social movement theory and describes the “Dictator’s Dilemma” that uprisings may pose for authoritarian governments. Taken together, these models suggest that an identity-driven rational choice framework can describe a wide range of phenomena related to contentious politics in authoritarian states