If Not Now, When? The Timing of Childbirth and Labour Market Outcomes

We study the effect of childbirth and its timing on female labour market outcomes in Italy. The impact on yearly labour earnings and fraction of time at work is traced up to 21 years since school completion by estimating a factor analytic model with dynamic selection into treatments. We find that childbearing, especially the first delivery, negatively affects female labour supply. Women having their first child soon after school completion are able to catch up with childless women after about 10 years. The timing matters, with minimal negative consequences on yearly earnings (fraction of days at work) observed if the first child is delayed up to 7–12 (10–12) years after exiting formal education