Il boom demografico prossimo venturo. Tendenze demografiche, mercato del lavoro ed immigrazione: scenari e politiche

The aim of the research is to introduce a generational stock-flow model to estimate international migration needs and provide long terms demographic forecasts in which migration is an endogenous variables determined by demographic trends and additional labor demand. At the empirical levels, it provides long term scenarios of net migratory balances and demographic trends for Italy. The main conclusion is that the decrease in fertility experienced by Italy, as by all industrialized countries, will not determine a contraction of population and working age population, as forecasted by all national and international statistical institutions, but will generate unprecedented population increases and international migratory flows