IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL PRICES UNCERTAINTY ON THE SUDANESE SORGHUM MARKET: A STOCHASTIC APPROACH

The paper simulates the possible sorghum price change and the related probability of occurrence under different rainfall scenarios and in a context of price uncertainty on international markets. The empirical investigation is based on the stochastic approach. Results underline an expected increase in sorghum price under the effect of the high level of uncertainty in precipitation and in international market price; the most intense likely change produced by the international market price of sorghum uncertainty; the need to overcome the agricultural view in policy making in order to include a market perspective.