Impacts of Lock Capacity Expansion on Delay Costs for Grain Shipped on the Mississippi River

Costs of delays for shipping on the Mississippi River caused by lock congestion are important and adversely impact growth in shipments on that mode. This study analyses the competitive position of grain shipments and quantifies delay costs on the Mississippi River system. A spatial optimisation model of the world grain trade was developed. Results indicate that without expansion in lock capacity, delay costs in 2020 could increase to $1.08 per metric ton. Expansion results in reduced delay costs. Finally, expanding the locks would result in a reallocation of shipments amongst modes, reaches, and ports, notwithstanding minor adjustments in production. © 2011 LSE and the University of Bath