Impacts of Recent Shocks to Alaska Fisheries: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model Analysis

We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate impacts of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: i) a 31% reduction in the walleye pollock allowable catch; ii) a 125% increase in fuel price; and iii) both shocks simultaneously. The latter scenario reflects actual industry trends between 2004 and 2008. Impacts on endogenous output, employment, factor income, and household income are assessed. We also estimate changes in a measure of household welfare and compare model results against actual change in pollock and seafood prices. Few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appear in the literature. This study is unique in that it includes more disaggregated industry sectors and examines supply-side shocks that are difficult to address using fixed-price models. This study also overcomes a serious deficiency in models that use unadjusted seafood sector data in IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning) by developing the fish harvesting and processing sectors independently from available data, supplemented by interviews with key informants to ground-truth industry cost estimates.