Implementation of a Physics-Based Decision-Making Framework for Evaluation of the Multidisciplinary Aircraft Uncertainty

In today's business climate, aerospace companiesare more than ever in need of rational methods andtechniques that provide insights as to the beststrategies which may be pursued for increasedprofitability and risk mitigation. However, the use of subjective, anecdotal decision-making remains prevalent due to the absence of analytical methods capable of capturing and forecasting future needs.Negotiations between airframe and enginemanufacturers could benefit greatly from astructured environment that facilitates efficient,rational, decision-making. Creation of such anenvironment can be developed through a parametricphysics-based, stochastic formulation that usesResponse Surface Equations as meta-models toexpedite the process. This paper describes theimplementation of such an approach in order todemonstrate the types of insights that might begained as an engine manufacturer tries to forecastthe effects of the associated airframe uncertainties (structural, aerodynamic, etc. design changes) on engine related characteristics for the design of a hypothetical regional business jet.