Implications of Real-Time Data for Forecasting and Model Expectations

This note extends the analysis in Stark and Croushore (2001) with an emphasis on the importance of data vintage for evaluating survey forecasts and modeling expectations. For both of these types of empirical exercises, results suggest that the choice of latest available or real-time data is critical for variables subject to large level revisions, but almost irrelevant for variables subject to only small revisions. Other forecasting practices were examined, with some surprising results