Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.

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Year of publication:	2013-04-03
Authors:	Aruoba, Boragan ; Diebold, Francis X. ; Nalewaik, Jeremy ; Schorfheide, Frank ; Song, Dongho
Institutions:	Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
Subject:	Income \| Output \| expenditure \| business cycle \| expansion \| contraction \| recession \| turning point \| state-space model \| dynamic factor model \| forecast combination

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	PIER Working Paper Archive.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	35 pages
Classification:	E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010633794