Indirect Land Use Changes (ILUC): The Seen and the Unseen

The paper analyzes a policy proposition to take into account indirect land use changes in the evaluation of GHG emissions by biofuel industry. Based on an extensive survey of scientific literature onILUC, it is argued that, due to the absence of a satisfactory scientific evaluation of ILUC, the proposition should be rejected for it will necessarily translate into arbitrary decisions and push an already struggling biofuel industry into bankruptcy. The study also provides afirst approximation of the cost of implementing ILUC regulation in terms of employment and subsidies. Also, a different orientation for a policy towards cleaner and renewable energy is outlined that would be based on a realistic account of current scientific and technological knowledge.