Individual Decisions And System Development - Integrating Modelling Approaches For The Heating Market

Improvements in the building stock insulation and the replacement of heating systems will have to take place within the next decades in order to lower heat demand and the associated carbon emissions of the building sector. Moreover, continuous investments in heating systems are nec-essary due to replacement activities. Besides conventional heating technologies like gas- or oil-fired heating systems and combined heat and power (CHP) plants in district heating, increasing-ly renewable systems like heat pumps and pellet stoves will have to be installed to cover heat demand. The current study presents an integrated, iterative modelling approach to determine the development of the heating market. A system model captures the fundamental influencing factors on the investment decision while a logistic decision model describes in detail the build-ing owners’ behaviour, taking into account the heterogeneous building stock and possible non-economic factors influencing heating system choice. In the application case, the potentials for different heating technologies are investigated under three different economic scenarios for the German heating market until 2050.