Inflation Dynamics in Pre and Post Deregulation Era in Ghana : Do Petroleum Prices Have Any Influence?

The study looks at the impact of price of petroleum prices on inflation in the Ghanaian economy in the pre and post deregulation era and associated direction of causality as well as the extent of pass through of high international petroleum products price to the domestic retail market. An ARDL model was applied on time series monthly data of various petroleum fuel prices as well as exchange rate. A pass-through formula use by Baig et al, (2007) was also applied.The results reveal that changes in LPG, Kerosene and premium prices have marginal impact on inflation. The pass through analysis revealed Ghana has not pass through more than 50% of increase price of international or import petroleum product of gasoline, kerosene and LPG to the ordinary consumers in the period of the study and this was lower in the post deregulation than pre deregulation. The study therefore recommends full deregulation to continue since it favours lower pass through of fuel price increase in the world market to ordinary consumers whiles may consider gasoline and premium price increase at the expense of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas price if inflation is to be shielded from fuel price increase