Inflation Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India

This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility along (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility are identified.