Information and Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets and Tipsters as Forecasters

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent dierent structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform dierently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.