Information rigidity and the expectations formation process : a simple framework and new facts

Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Coibion, Olivier ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
Publisher:	Washington, DC : Internat. Monetary Fund
Subject:	Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Rationale Erwartung \| Rational expectations \| Unvollkommene Information \| Incomplete information \| Inflationssteuerung \| Inflation targeting

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Extent:	Online-Ressource graph. Darst.
Series:	IMF working papers. - Washington, DC : IMF, ZDB-ID 2108494-4. - Vol. 12/296 IMF Working Papers
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	"December 2013 "Research Department Includes bibliographical references Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Forecast Errors, Forecast Revisions and Information Rigidities; A. Sticky-Information Model; B. Noisy-Information Model; C. A New Approach for Assessing the Nature of the Expectations Formation Process; D. Extensions and Alternative Interpretations; Heterogeneity in Signal-Noise Ratios; Forecast Smoothing; III. Information Rigidities across Agent Types, Macroeconomic Variables, and Countries; A. Information Rigidity across Agents; B. Information Rigidity across Variables and Horizons; C. Information Rigidity across Countries D. Cross-Sectional Variation and the Determinants of Information RigidityIV. State-Dependence in Information Rigidities; A. Information Rigidities and the Great Moderation; B. Information Rigidities over the Business Cycle; C. Information Rigidities after Large Visible Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Tests of the Inflation Expectations Process; 2. Testing for Higher Order Dynamics; 3. Tests of Alternative Interpretations of Forecast Error Predictability; 4. Information Rigidity in Inflation Forecasts by Forecaster Types 5. The Macroeconomic Determinants of Information Rigidities6. Forecast Revisions after the 9/11 Attacks; Figures; 1. Estimates of Information Rigidity by Horizon and Macroeconomic Variable; 2. International Evidence on Information Rigidities; 3. Information Rigidity and the Great Moderation; 4. Information Rigidity during a Business Cycle; 5. Forecasts of U.S. Production before and After the September 11[Sup(th)], 2001 Attacks; Appendices; A. Bias in OLS Estimates under Common Noise; B. Noisy-Information Model under Generalized Dynamics C. Noisy-Information Model with Heterogeneous Signal-Noise RatiosD. Noisy-Information Model with Heterogeneous Priors about Long-Run Means; E. Heterogeneity in Loss Aversion; F: Dynamic Forecast Smoothing; Appendix Tables; 7. Properties of Inflation Forecasts; 8. Pooled Estimates of the Expectations Formation Process; Appendix Figures; 6. Inflation Forecasts from Professional Forecasters, Consumers and Financial Markets; 7. Noise-Signal Ratios and Estimated Coefficients on Forecast Revisions Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
ISBN:	978-1-4755-1924-2 ; 978-1-4755-1924-2
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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