Innovation diffusion models : theory and practice

"New product growth models - also called innovation diffusion models - are used to describe and forecast the evolution in time of sales of new products. Commercial products are characterized by a finite life cycle, which follows a nonlinear path, namely birth, growth, maturity, and decline. Previously, traditional time series frameworks such as ARIMA models have been used, however, they do not prove a satisfactory choice. A growing need for quantitative marketing in today's market is driving the development of new product diffusion models to determine the life cycle of a new product. The statistical techniques involved in new model estimations combine time series analysis with nonlinear regression techniques, which this book shall explore. Innovation Diffusion Models: Theory and Practice fully assesses the main mathematical features of the models, discussing the meaning of the parameters from the marketing point of view with several real-data examples; presents and discuss the statistical aspects involved in model estimation and selection; presents and discusses forecasting and explanatory ability of the proposed models with real-data applications in several industrial and commercial sector and proposes new ideas for future achievements in research and commercial practice."--