Institutional arrangements and life course outcomes: the interrelations between cohabitation, marriage and first birth in Germany and Sweden

We study the link between institutional arrangements and fertility, focusing on how institutions affect the nexus between partnership formation and fertility. We apply simultaneous hazard models to family and fertility survey data for Germany and Sweden. Our results show a significant presence of correlated unobserved factors that affect both partnership formation and the transition to parenthood. We argue that these factors reflect the heterogeneous composition of each population with respect to values and norms. Net of that correlation, the impact of being in a union on first birth is higher in Sweden than in Germany, in particular for cohabitation.