Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts
The complementary strengths that management judgment and statistical methods can bring to the forecasting process have been widely discussed. This paper reviews research on the effectiveness of methods that are designed to allow judgment and statistical methods to be integrated when short-term point forecasts are required. The application of both voluntary and mechanical integration methods are considered and conditions identified where the use of particular methods is appropriate, according to current research. While acknowledging the power of mechanical integration methods that exclude the judgmental forecaster from the integration process, the paper suggests that future research effort should focus on the design of forecasting support systems that facilitate voluntary integration.
Year of publication: |
2002
|
---|---|
Authors: | Goodwin, Paul |
Published in: |
Omega. - Elsevier, ISSN 0305-0483. - Vol. 30.2002, 2, p. 127-135
|
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Forecasting Judgment Bias Time series Decision support |
Saved in:
Online Resource
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
The Relatve Influence of Advice from Human Experts and Statistical Methods on Forecast Adjustments
Önkal, Dilek, (2009)
-
Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?
Goodwin, Paul, (2010)
-
Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting
Goodwin, Paul, (2004)
- More ...