Intergenerational effects of mobile telecommunications service diffusion in Sweden

This paper addresses the intergenerational effects of mobile telephone service diffusion in Sweden. Using the Norton-Bass model and the Islam-Meade model, it plots annual mobile service penetration rate data from 1956 to 2010 to explain the pattern of mobile telephone service diffusion. The results show that only the Norton-Bass model could achieve convergence status in the programme iteration. The results also suggest that the diffusion process is affected more by external factors, such as word of mouth, than by the inherent innovativeness of users. Each type of technology is also found to have different market potential, with newer technology having greater market potential than older technology. The study also recognises that the intergenerational process of mobile telephone service diffusion is comparable to the evolutionary process of technology in the sense that it shows two main evolutionary features, i.e., the emergence of technology variation across generations and the selection process from earlier generations of technology to the new one.