Internal migration across Italian regions: macroeconomic determinants and accommodating potential for a dualistic economy

We provide econometric evidence that relative per capita GDP and relative unemployment rates are the main determinants of migration flows across Italian regions from 1970 to 2002. The empirical analysis is based on an accurate study of the dynamic properties of the series. In fact, we deal with the issues of non-stationarity and cointegration and estimate an error correction model in which both the short- and long-run dynamics are modelled at once. The regional unemployment rate is robustly inversely related with net regional migration rate, while per capita GDP is strongly positively linked with it. As far as the accommodating potential of internal migration to regional unbalances, we have detected very little room for such a role. Indeed, the degree of labour mobility across Italian regions cannot be active as an effective equilibrating mechanism.