International Tourist Arrivals In Thailand: Forecasting With Arfima-Figarch Approach

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for the period of 2009-2010. Research results during this period confirm that the best forecasting method based on the ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) model is ARFIMA(1,-0.45,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.07,1). Furthermore, this model predicts that the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will not go up or be constant. If these results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thai government sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop the tourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailand urgently.