Is America depressed?

Purpose – This paper aims to ass whether or not the USA is going through a recession, looking at evidence from business data as well as interviews with local business people. Design/methodology/approach – This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments. Findings – Earlier this year The Economist published an article that asked whether or not emerging economies are becoming decoupled from the US economy. It highlighted a current debate among economists about the likelihood that emerging economies will follow the USA into recession. Those who believe they will argue that it makes no sense to talk about decoupling of economies in an era of globalization. Economies are now so entwined thanks to current trade and finance conditions that if the US experiences a tough time economically then it will perforce take other countries with it. Against this view, however, others argue that although weakened sales to the USA will have an impact, emerging economies are still surging and are finding other channels for sales and growth. After all, the four biggest emerging economies – China, India, Brazil and Russia – are hardly dependent on the USA: the majority of growth in these areas is coming from domestic demand and trade deals among themselves. Whichever side of the debate we stand on, common to both arguments is the implicit agreement that the USA is currently going through a recession. Whatever is going on in emerging markets, the US economy is on the verge of crumbling. But, ask Jack Gage and David Whitford, is that really the case? Practical implications – The paper gives a starting point for further lines of enquiry into the supposed US recession. Originality/value – The paper offers different perspectives on the US economy, and how it is affecting everyone from the local businessman to major emerging economies.