Is the CNB Predictable?

This paper asks to what extent were the last one hundred policy decisions taken by the Czech National Bank (CNB) considered predictable by the market. The results are threefold. First, CNB policy decisions can be considered as predictable on average. Second, policy predictability followed no clear trend. Third, the analysis shows that it was more difficult for the market to predict policy outcomes regarding CNB Board meetings where interest rate were changed compared with meetings where repo rate were not changed.