Is the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) a Stepping Stone for the Next Version of GATS?

The TiSA negotiations will face a dilemma between two conflicting positions: on the one hand, whether TiSA can promise to yield gains through new business opportunities will depend on the political will of RGFs members to deal with the need for introducing creative modalities to the negotiations. On the other hand, TiSA must mirror the format of GATS so as to facilitate future multilateralization into the current GATS architecture. The future success of TiSA depends on whether there will be sufficient mutual gains to be achieved by cooperating within the services trade. This means that the “main partners” and “main markets” must be included, and that the gains are distributed relatively symmetrically. In any event, the professed “multilateralization” will not happen as long as the condition for critical mass is not fulfilled. In that case, any other options to incorporate the TiSA into the WTO would require either a qualified majority vote, or a consensus from the broader WTO membership, which it is unlikely to be achieved. It remains to be seen how the struggle of RGFs to find a common landing zone will be resolved