Is the Unequal COVID-19 Burden in Canada Due to Unequal Levels of Citizens’ Discipline Across Provinces?

The unequal burden from the COVID-19 crisis (e.g., in terms of infection and death rates) across Canadian provinces is important and puzzling. Some have speculated that differences in levels of citizen compliance with public health preventive measures are central to understanding cross-provincial differences in pandemic outcomes. However, there has been no systematic empirical test of this hypothesis. In this research, we make use of an exceptionally large dataset including 23 survey waves (N=22,610) fielded in Canada across twelve months (April 2020 to April 2021) to answer the question: is there evidence of substantial cross-provincial differences in citizen compliance with basic public health measures designed to prevent the spread of infection? We find that regional differences are few and very modest, suggesting that inter-provincial differences in COVID-19 related health outcomes have little to do with differences in citizen compliance. These results have important implications. While it is crucial that we understand regional variations related to the COVID-19 burden, public officials from health agencies, pundits and politicians should be cautious when musing about the role of citizen compliance as the primary explanation of inter-provincial pandemic health outcomes