It is Harder, Not Easier, to Predict the Winner of the Champions League

European Cup football has experienced a major change in format with the introduction of the Champions League in 1992 and a major change in admission rules with direct qualification for multiple teams from the highest ranked leagues in 1999. We show that, in line with popular press reports and other studies, qualification in lower rounds has become more predictable in the Champions League. At the same time, however, outcomes at later stages have become less predictable. We provide evidence and an explanation