KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK? AN EVALUATION OF THE USDA'S LIVESTOCK PRICE FORECASTS

One step-ahead forecasts of quarterly live cattle, live hog, and broiler prices are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Results suggest USDA price forecasts are not optimal. Broiler price forecasts are biased, and all the forecast series tend to repeat errors. While the USDA forecasts are more accurate that those of a univariate AR(4) time series model, the evidence suggests that live cattle forecasts could be improved with a composite forecast. However, the USDA correctly identifies the direction of price change in at least 70% of its forecasts. Prices fall within the USDA's forecasted range 48% of the time for broilers but only 35% for hogs. Finally, there is some evidence that the USDA's price forecasting accuracy has improved over time for broilers, but it has gotten marginally worse for hogs.