Kenya Country Climate and Development Report

The Kenya Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) aims to identify the impact of climate change on Kenya's economy. Through robust and rigorous analyses that cover climate impact modeling across multiple scenarios and the overall economy, sectoral issues, investment needs and potential sources of financing, the CCDR aims to identify high impact intervention areas that would support climate positive development. Action against climate change is imperative to avoid setting back Kenya's aspiration of being an upper-middle-income country and reducing poverty in the next decade. In a business-as-usual scenario, inaction under different climate futures could dampen real GDP by 1.25 to 2.4 percent by 2030 and 3.61 to 7.25 percent by 2050 compared to the baseline. Climate impacts Kenya's human, natural and physical capital and the impacts vary by region. By 2050, no climate action could also result in 1.1 million additional poor compared to the baseline under the pessimistic climate scenario, with communities in the arid and semi-arid areas being most hard-hit. Kenya can also be a key player in the global climate solutions arena if it maintains a low-carbon growth path. Kenya stands out among African and lower-middle-income countries due to its well-diversified and primarily low-carbon energy mix, with about 90 percent of electricity generation coming from renewable resources. Kenya could also generate carbon offsets through large-scale landscape restoration. The CCDR identifies five key action areas that could enable Kenya to meet its growth aspirations in an inclusive and climate-resilient manner. The three multisectoral action areas are: managing water, land, and forest for climate-resilient agriculture and rural economies; delivering people-centered resilience with climate-informed basic services and urbanization; and strengthening Kenya's competitiveness in international markets through shifts in energy, transport, and digital systems. It is necessary to complement these the three action areas with two crosscutting actions areas - improving integration and coordination of climate action in policy, planning, and investment decision-making across the economy, and developing and operationalizing policy measures for mobilizing climate finance from private and public sector. Implementing these action areas should account for regional differences to climate risk exposure