L'actuariat au siècle des Lumières. Risque et décision économiques et statistiques

During the 1780?'s, some mathematicians addressed economic and statistical decision problems in the same way. Condorcet and Laplace in France, Tetens in Denmark applied a unique mathematical tool to compute both the bankruptcy probability of an insurance company and the estimation risk. Such analogy is clearly of mathematical nature. Tetens?' result eventually appear modest in comparison of Laplace?'s accomplishment, nevertheless it shall be recalled that Laplace spent twenty years polishing the instrument which enabled him to give his masterwork. Laplace and Tetens were probably not aware of their respective work, and the concomitance of their research is all the more exceptional when one think of Richard Price. The Englishman, although he contributed to insurance theory and statistical estimation, did not perceive the formal similarity between these two subjects.Classification JEL : A12, B19, C11, D81.