Schwarz Karl. ? The Decline in the Birth Rate in the Federal German Republic. Between 1964 and 1977 the number of births in the Federal German Republic fell by 46 per cent from 1,065,000 to 582,000 and the net reproduction rate by 44 per cent from 1.18 to 0.66. This decline is general, but it is greater among the German than the foreign born population, and in the towns rather than the countryside. Differences in the age structure and the development of nuptiality have enhanced the decline in fertility. A maintenance of. current low levels of fertility would result in a population of 39 million by the year 2030, and 9 million of that population would be 65 years old or older. To return to replacement level would require the virtual elimination of childlessness among married couples, that half the couples with two children would go on to have a third, and that ten per cent of families would have four children. These figures show that a spontaneous reversal of trends is unlikely.
