La influencia regional sobre la economía uruguaya - un ánalisis de los últimos veinte años

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the influence of Argentina and Brazil on the Uruguayan economy between 1980 and 2002. The analysis of the relations between the regional GDPs indicated the existence of a long-term equilibrium between the growth rates of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Particularly, the growth rate of Uruguay is determined in the long-run by the mean of the growth rates of Argentina and Brazil. In addition, demand equations of Uruguayan exports from Argentina and Brazil were estimated in order to analyze in detail one of the channels by which this relation is verified. The empirical approach consisted in Cointegration techniques and Autorregressive Vectors with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM).