La spéculation contribue- t- elle à expliquer la dynamique des prix des produits alimentaires au Sénégal ?

This paper deals with the role of speculation on food prices' fluctuations in Senegal. The analysis is based on a nonlinear rational expectations commodity storage model which seems to be the appropriate approach to explain the behavior of the speculators who intervene on the food markets. The results corroborate the presence of speculation in food markets. For seven out of nine studied products, the model identifies a price threshold under which the tradesperson may find it advantageous to hold some stock to increase his profit. The model also evaluates the income loss for consumers due to speculation. For example, the results show that, in 2007 and 2008, the Senegalese households budgets consumer's budgets devoted to broken rice and dried consumption are respectively of 40% and 7.3% higher than they would have been in the absence of speculation.