La vraie nature du taux de natalité

Le Bras Hervé. The Real Nature of the Birth Rate. What is a birth rate ? In this paper, we begin by demonstrating how this measure is constructed by means of a model, and we then compare the definitions proposed by a number of well known writers. It becomes clear that two contradictory notions exist simultaneously : that of a probability, and that of an empirical adjustment which is independent of population size. The second notion makes international comparisons possible, but cannot be applied if the development of a single population over a few years is considered. The opposite is true of the first notion.